What are the chances?
- The concept of probability
- Contrast interpreting probability as frequency or propensity of some phenomenon
- A quantity that is assigned to represent a state of knowledge, or a state of belief
- Named for Thomas Bayes (1701-1761)
- The theory in the field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of ‘degrees of belief’ or, more specifically, Bayesian probabilities
- A method of statistical inference in which Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available